More than 25,000 people were temporarily homeless, and 133 died, besides thousands of homes affected by floods or mudslides: these are some of the sad consequences of heavy rain in northeast Brazil, especially in the state of Pernambuco, between the end of May and the beginning of June. These consequences are also part of a study by the World Weather Attribution (WWA), released this Tuesday, (5).
The document had contributions from scientists from Brazil, the UK, Netherlands, France, and the USA. The current Brazilian phase of the study takes these extreme events as its starting point, from their first meteorological signs to their final effects. The goal was to gauge the influence of 1,2°C (34,16°F) global warming on the occurrence and intensity of this natural disaster.
:: Chuva atinge 36 cidades de Pernambuco e enchentes deixam quase 10 mil pessoas fora de casa ::
Based on data related to the period of 7 and 15 most acute rain days, the group concluded that human interference had increased the chances of these same phenomena in the future. Lincoln Alves, from Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE, in Portuguese), said that the study indicates extreme natural events will become more intense in the future.
“When we analyzed the natural climate variability taking into account the emission of greenhouse gases and deforestation, we got to quantify and state that this event, although rare, had the chance of being about 20% more intense due to climate change”, he explains.
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Other regions have been suffering from too much rain in July
The geographical focus researchers adopted includes three northeastern Brazilian states: Pernambuco, Alagoas, and Rio Grande do Norte. However, it did not collect data related to the disasters that happened again in these states in the first days of July.
In the first five days of July alone, more than 12,000 people were temporarily homeless, and about 52,000 were staying in relatives’ or friends’ houses. Towns and cities located in the South Forest Zone and Agreste, both areas near the coastal strip of the northeast region of the country, had the poorest indicators, according to data published by state governments.
In addition to winter being the rainy season on the Brazilian northeast coast, other geomorphological and also socioeconomic characteristics explain the occurrence of rain as seen on May 27 and 28. In just under 24 hours, parts of Pernambuco state recorded 70% of all the rainfall expected for May.
:: Análise | Caos no clima gera aumento das migrações internas e requer atenção ::
It also must be considered some historical problems of uncontrolled urban development, construction on river banks and hillsides, plus the high poverty level and marginalization of vulnerable populations. That is the conclusion of Alexandre Köberle, a researcher from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
“Factors like urban expansion in areas at risk of landslides and floods are one of the factors that amplify the impacts of rain and floods. Buildings that do not meet security standards and the problem of drainage are also common in some regions”, highlights Köberle.
Prevention is one of the challenges to the future
Another researcher who contributed to the WWA study was meteorologist Edvânia Pereira dos Santos from the Pernambuco State Water and Climate Agency (Apac, in Portuguese). She highlights the efforts by Civil Defense to warn people before the events of May and June. According to Santos, Apac informed the responsible agencies three months in advance of the probability of rain.
Since then, Civil Defense has taken measures to be able to respond faster, even though they have been ineffective, due to the event being stronger than anticipated.
Edvânia believes in the power of social media platforms to help establish faster and more agile communication with the population. “Because of this extreme event, we gained 50,000 new followers on Instagram, which is an accessible tool to vulnerable populations, with lower rates of formal education and living in risky areas”, she argues, complaining about cultural barriers still in place about this subject.
The anticipation of these events is being done with some precision, according to Köberle, but it is still necessary to create and reinforce warning systems for emergencies. “It is crucial to the evacuation of vulnerable populations, for instance. It could reduce the most serious impacts, such as deaths and serious injuries”, he explains.
:: Deslizamentos em Pernambuco: "Existem planejamentos, mas eles são excludentes", diz geógrafo ::
City planner Luiz Firmino, a researcher at the Center for Studies in Regulation and Infrastructure of Getúlio Vargas Foundation (FGV-CERI, in Portuguese), mentions the installation of sirens in hillside areas, where reaction time is usually short. He is also enthusiastic about large-scale adaptations, such as building dams to curb floods.
"The dams can retain the water before it reaches the settlements, and then it can be released little by little when the rain stops," he said. The researcher also pointed out that the lack of planning, added to the lack of safer housing options, are factors that are very characteristic of risk areas.
Social inequality intensifies the impacts caused by rain
Whether in prevention or measures to contain the impacts, the fact is that heavy rain opens wide the lack of right to proper housing, basic sanitation, life, and other rights. Brasil de Fato Pernambuco talked to Fabrízio Listo, geographer and professor at the Federal University of Pernambuco, to understand the roots of the flood issue in cities and what solutions may be taken by the State.
Listo said that rain is part of the normal cyclic dynamics of nature. “Rain in tropical environments is a climate impulse that saturates the soil, generating landslides. When a landslide turns into a disaster, it is because there was poor risk management, lack of control or inspection, and lack of public policies prioritizing the population living on hillsides”, he says.
Another recurring theme in this kind of disaster is the need to restart the debate about urban planning. On this issue, Listo adds: “I wouldn’t say that there is no [urban] planning. It does exist, but it is exclusionary. Some areas benefit greatly from structures, but others are forgotten areas. In this context of territorial injustice, we have some vulnerable populations with low-income families who have to live on hillsides. Hence, when we urbanize these areas, we must ensure they have access to public services and infrastructure so that these populations also enjoy a good life, and [we manage to] curb environmental racism”.
Threats to environmental legislation may aggravate the situation
Some bills pending in the National Congress seek to alter Brazil’s Forest Code to loosen environmental rules. Firmino mentions as an example Law 14.285/21, which transfers to cities and towns the power to regulate the restriction strips along rivers, streams, lakes, and ponds within their urban limits.
“It is no wonder that since 1965, the Brazilian Forest Code stipulated that [cities and towns] must have a minimum protection area measuring X meters on each side precisely to prevent overflow. It is not just about protecting the riparian forest and preventing the silting of rivers because rivers overflow when it rains a lot”, says Firmino.
The government opposition is still trying to prevent the passage of other bills that would lead to the so-called “Package of Destruction”, a set of bills that may allow further resource exploitation and the destruction of Indigenous territories and areas of environmental protection. These are factors that would help to intensify Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions, contrary to the recommendations made by the United Nations Environment Program (PNUMA, in Portuguese).
On the other hand, some federal deputies also proposed a series of bills to financially support the victims of heavy rain in the Brazilian northeast region. The most significant bills are those presented by Mário Heringer (Democratic Labor Party, Minas Gerais state), which would compel the State to support and distribute donations in case of a calamity, and the bill by Danilo Coelho (Citizenship, Pernambuco state), which would grant an aid of 10,000 reais (about U$ 1,900) to rebuild houses destroyed by storms.
An external commission from the Chamber of Deputies also mobilized representatives from Pernambuco to monitor the situation of affected communities there. Under the coordination of Marília Arraes (Solidarity Party), parliamentarians met this Tuesday (5) with residents of some of the most affected regions to hear their demands.
Edited by: Flávia Chacon
