2022 Elections

Datafolha poll indicates Lula could win 50% of valid votes on Sunday for a first-round victory

Lula has 50% of the valid votes and can win in the first round; Bolsonaro has 36%; Ciro dropped one point and has 6%

Translated by: Zoe PC, with Peoples Dispatch

Brasil de Fato | Brasília (DF) |
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva e Jair Bolsonaro, the main candidates to the presidency - Reprodução/Twitter

A new Datafolha poll, released on September 29, shows former President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (Lula) with 50% of the valid votes three days before the Brazilian elections.

The Brazilian presidential candidate has maintained the same level as in the previous poll, released on September 22, and is still likely to win the election in the first round. President Jair Bolsonaro has 36% of valid votes, a difference of 14 percentage points.

Considering the total votes, not excluding null and blank votes, Lula’s position moved up one point, from 47% to 48%. Bolsonaro also rose one point, from 33% to 34%.

Candidate Ciro Gomes has 6% of valid votes, Simone Tebet has 5%, and Soraya Thronicke has 1%. The other candidates did not score any points.

Second round

In a possible second round of voting, Lula would have 54% of the vote, while Bolsonaro would have 39%.

Datafolha surveyed 6,800 people in 332 cities from September 27 to 29. The margin of error is two percentage points higher or lower. The survey was commissioned by Folha and TV Globo, and registered with the number BR-09479/2022 in the Superior Electoral Court.

Edited by: Nicolau Soares e Flávia Chacon