Election 2022

Quaest poll: Brazil Aid invigorates Bolsonaro's campaign, but Lula remains leading the surveys

The government’s image shows signs of recovery; the presidential election race is still favorable to the Workers' Party

Translated by: Ana Paula Rocha

Brasil de Fato | Brasília (DF) |
Bolsonaro and Lula are the main candidates for the Presidency of the Republic in the October elections - Flickr/Presidência da República e Flickr/Agência PT | Montagem: Brasil de Fato

A new Quaest survey, ordered by Genial Bank and released this Wednesday (June 3), points out that Jair Bolsonaro’s government (Liberal Party) is presenting some signs of recovery in the opinion polls but is still having difficulties in the reelection race.  

The fall in the rejection of the president's administration, mainly among Brazil Aid beneficiaries, had not much impact on the electoral race. A study shows that former President Lula (Workers’ Party) remains steady at the top of the polls and may win in the first round. 

The resumption of Brazil Aid caused the Bolsonaro government to reach its lowest rejection rate since the survey began, in July 2021. Now, 43% evaluate federal administration negatively, while 27% consider it positive.

The improvement of the government's image is perceived among voters who receive Brazil Aid payments. In June, the gap between the negative and positive evaluations was 27 percentage points. In August, the gap dropped to 11 points.

Evaluation of the Bolsonaro government | Brazil Aid

Evaluation of the Bolsonaro government among Brazil Aid beneficiaries, according to the Quaest/Genial survey 

The government also presented an improved image among voters that supported the president in the 2018 elections. 57% of Bolsonaro supporters see his administration as excellent or good. At the beginning of the year, it was only 45%. 

Political scientist Felipe Nunes, Quaest’s director, published an analysis of the survey on Twitter. According to him, the signs of improvement in the voters' evaluation of the government are due to measures taken by the federal government.

According to Nunes, the main explanation for this improvement in the public perception of Bolsonaro’s government and the fact that Bolsonaro's and Lula's voting intentions are getting closer among voters in important sectors of the electorate is the future expectation effect generated by the president with the measures adopted in recent months.

Nunes highlights that the percentage of voters who believe Brazil’s economy has worsened in the last year fell from 64% to 56%. In contrast, the number of voters who say the economy has improved in the last year jumped from 15% to 20%. 

He also points out that fell from 25% to 21% the total number of voters who believe that the main person to blame for the rise in fuel prices is Bolsonaro. 

Therefore, the study shows that the country’s current president managed to outsource the blame for the crisis to factors external to the country, which today accounts for 34% of respondents.

Read below the full analysis published by Quaest’s director:

Tweet: This month’s Genial/Quaest survey shows an improvement in the perception of Bolsonaro’s government, which now has 27% (+1) of positive evaluations and 43% (-4) of negative evaluations. This is the lowest rejection rate for the government since the Genial/Quest survey began, in July 2021.

Electoral race

According to the Quest/Genial survey, Lula still leads the voting intentions with 44%. President Jair Bolsonaro has 32% of the voting intentions. 

The Workers’ Party candidate has 2 percentage points more than the sum of all the other candidates, which could mean a victory in the first round. However, this advantage is equal to the margin of error, which is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

Ciro Gomes (Democratic Labor Party) reached 5%, while André Janones (Avante) had 2%, the same percentage as Simone Tebet (Brazilian Democratic Movement). Pablo Marçal (Prosperity Party, also known as Pros) had 1%. The abovementioned percentages are of a “stimulated scenario”, when voters must choose a candidate from a list of pre-candidates. The other presidential candidates did not score.

Regarding the most recent Quaest presidential poll, Lula and Bolsonaro varied within the margin of error. In July, the Workers’ Party candidate had 45%, and the Liberal Party candidate had 31%. 

Second round

Lula remains the winner in all scenarios for the second round of the presidential elections. Compared to the surveys made in July, Lula and Bolsonaro varied within the margin of error. Lula had 53%, and now he has 51%. Bolsonaro jumped from 34% to 37%.

In July, Ciro had 25% in a second turn against Lula, who had 52%. Now, Ciro has 27%, and Lula has 51%. Against Tebet, Lula maintained 55%, while Tebet was between 20% and 22%.

The poll interviewed 2,000 voters face-to-face between June 28 and July 31, and was ordered by Genial Investments. The margin of error is plus or minus two percentage points. The confidence index is 95%. The poll is registered in the Brazilian Superior Electoral Court under the number 02546/2022 and had a total cost of 139,005.86 reais (about US$ 26,874). 

Edited by: Flávia Chacon